On 30 August, the Minshuto (Democrat Party of Japan, DPJ, considered as centrist) won 308 seats out of the 480 forming the Lower Chamber of the Nippon Parliament, establishing itself as the first formation of the country, far ahead of the conservative Jiyuminshuto (Jiminto, Liberal-democrat Party, LDP) who could only save 119 seats out of the 300 they had before. It is indisputably a historical victory, but their viability in the long-run remains to be confirmed.
For the first time since 1955, the omnipotent Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) has lost its rank as the first political formation of Japan, to the benefit of a great rival, the Minshuto (Democrat Party of Japan, DPJ). Led by its founder, Yukio Hatoyama, descendant of a lineage of politicians and grandson of the founder of the Bridgestone tire group (world number one in the sector, running elbow to elbow with the French Michelin firm), the DPJ based its campaign on buoyant subjects such as the deliquescence of the “LDP system” and the return of the Welfare State. The slogans were of the same ilk: "alternance", “vote for a real democracy”, “power to the politicians”, “let’s put an end to bureaucracy”, “let’s put a stop to waste”, “stop amakudari (public to private sector crossover)”, “MPs serving the people”. Running against older LDP candidates, whose discourse has been discredited by the degraded economic situation, the loss of social acquirements, the rise of unemployment rate to an unparalleled level (5. 7% of the active population at the end of August) and the fear of tomorrow, the DPJ presented juvenile, smiling and dynamic men and women, symbols of renewal. Masking its internal divisions, this young mosaic party, considered as centrist, seemed to perceive the sufferings of the population which were ascribed to the ultra-liberal policy conducted by LDP Prime Minister Koizumi between 2001 and 2006. Taking the exact opposite stand, the DPJ has promised an economy founded on social welfare, a reform of the political institutions at the service of the citizens and greater diplomatic independence of Japan on the international stage. They are henceforth bound by these promises, but are they realistic?
Newspapers announcing the victory of the DPJ over the LDP
© K. Poupée / 2009
Donations for all
The DPJ intends first of all to reverse the chain of command within the administrative machine, thereby denouncing the excessive power of top-rank civil servants to the detriment of the elected officials. Objective: return complete control over the budget to the political decision-makers, the keystone of the promises focussed on redistribution of the national wealth.
The new government has guaranteed upward adjustment and unification of the minimum wage to raise it gradually to 1,000 Yens per hour (7.5 Euros/h), as well as a minimal retirement wage of 70,000 Yens (526 Euros) per month. They thus meet the main concerns of the citizens. To cope with denatality, partially due to economic uncertainties, they wish to increase the baby bonus to 550,000 Yens (4,150 Euros), then offer a monthly allowance of 26,000 Yens (approx. 200 Euros) to every child to the end of the secondary school, as many financial supports accompanied by various other measures, such as free public sector high schools, for an annual total cost equivalent to 1% of the gross domestic product (GDP), larger than the defence budget. The Hatoyama cabinet also foresees to suppress unpopular provisions related to health expenses of over 75-year old people. To small and medium-sized companies, victims at the end of day of the drop in exports and the decline of domestic consumption, they offer a reduction in tax rate from 18% to 11% and financial supports for preservation of employment and for professional tuition. The farmers, cross with the LDP, will benefit from new subsidies (income contribution for independent growers). Interim staff will not be able to work in factories any longer, motorways will become gradually free and petrol will be taxed less heavily. All these combined arrangements aim to strengthen the anaemic internal economy, by recomforting citizens anxious about the future, cautious and shattered by years of erratic conjunctural fluctuations. The LDP was conducting a recovery policy based on supply by promoting the creation of new products and services, through the intervention of large scale industrial plans, research programmes, the construction of public infrastructures. The DPJ considers theses methods useless to alleviate the present self-feeding social uneasiness. But have they got the means for their altruistic ambitions?
Uncertain financing
The new government asserts that the sums necessary to that generous programme may be set aside by controlling the actions of the civil servants more strictly, by suppressing superfluous administrative echelons, by reducing the public wage bill, by selling goods and eliminating unjustified expenses (construction of dams, renting too expensive buildings, sums paid unduly to intermediate bodies, etc.). It also relies eventually on the mechanical increase in income from the tax base on domestic consumption promoted by its support measures, without raising the rate thereof (5%). The taxes on active people childless households could also rise, a campaign omission.
The virtuous circuit in which the DPJ believes however convinces neither the economists nor the business circles who get worried about public finances. Whereas the State debt amounts to at least 180% of the gross domestic product (GDP), the cost of all the arrangements considered will, at the end of mandate, in 2013, be close to 16,800 billion Yens (126 billions Euros) per annum. If, according to a study by the Mizuho bank, Japan might benefit in 2010 from a 1% growth boost thanks to the conjunction of the different schemes afore-mentioned, a 0.5% and 0.1% reflux is feared for both following years. Another major motive for reservation: the absence of an estimate of the cost for companies and households regarding the ambitious objective of a 25% reduction in greenhouse effect gas emissions between 1990 and 2020 (which means a 30% drop between 2005 and 2020). Although claiming to be concerned about the fight against climate warming, the entrepreneurs consider it as an obstacle to the expansion of their activity. All the more so since the DPJ only added the support to the development of essential technologies at the last minute in its strategy to reach this target and to fill in obvious gaps and provide industrial vision to its programme.
Diplomacy: acting differently, but how?
As regards diplomacy, the new power intends “to build a trusting relationship” with the United States, an inescapable ally, without blindly presenting a follow-my-leader attitude, which it reproached the LDP. It still remains that the security of Japan is strongly dependent on American systems (a good example is the detection device of North-Korean missile firings). Yesterday opposed to the resupply mission of the American troops engaged in Afghanistan, what will the government do when the latter reaches its term in January? It simply asserts for the time being that it “will not simply renew that mission as such”, quite an attenuated wording with respect to the statements heard at the beginning of the campaign (‘will put an end”) then disapproved by the United States. And what about the redeployment of the 47,000 American soldiers present on the Japanese territory, mainly in the Okinawa archipelago, a permanent matter for dispute? Is a compromise possible anyway regarding the “Northern territories” (Kuril islands) annexed by Russia and whereof Japan demands restitution? How should North Korea be handled, whose head of state makes a point of dividing the countries supposed to negotiate with him? Can the mystery of the Japanese kidnapped in the 70-80s by the Pyongyang regime be resolved? Is there a secret consent authorising the presence of US nuclear ships in Nippon waters, in spite of the Japan dogma: “Japan will not develop, will not possess, will not house atomic weapons”? The DPJ has promised to cast a light rapidly on this hypothetical hidden clause, but will the United States let it proceed? How far will discussions aimed at a commercial free exchange agreement between Japan and USA go? How does the archipelago finally contemplate responding to China’s increasing power, to maintain a figurehead position in Asia? For all these pending issues, the DPJ has engaged itself to respond differently from its predecessors, which is rather audacious. It only remains to translate this laudable volition into action, which still raises scepticism among observers.
Election boards presenting Yukio Hatoyama
© K. Poupée / 2009
A voluntarist government but under close scrutiny
Internally as well as externally, it is nevertheless certain that the new Hatoyama government who, the day after it was formed, benefited from some 75% favourable opinions among the population according to several polls, will endeavour, at least up to the Senatorial elections of July 2010, to demonstrate its bona fide immediately to the public. It will do so even if it involves making radical decisions within a few hours (suspending orders for public building sites, abrogation of laws deemed unfair) and with the risk of verbal confrontation, if not in actions, with the powers that be (banks, top managers, high-rank civil servants, etc.). Still, it will not be able to force its way, since it cannot afford to rule anybody out. De facto, although the DPJ has rested its triumph on the election of young laypeople, the managing team consists of experienced members of parliament, on top of their disciplines and skilled in the arcanes of politics (with Naoto Kana appointed to national strategy, Katusya Okada to foreign affairs, Hirohisa Fujii to finances, Masayuki Naoshima to economy, Akira Nagatsuma to health, etc.).
Nevertheless, the DPJ is not totally free of its movements yet. Failing a majority in the Upper Chamber of the Parliament, it had to ally with two smaller parties originating from more anti-liberal sphere of influence (Shakaiminshuto, Social-democrat Party, and Kokuminshinto, New Citizen Party). Still the latter, which only total 10 seats in the Lower Chamber, have harshly negotiated their support, while maintaining vagueness about sensitive topics (presence of American soldiers in the archipelago, continuation of military missions abroad, weight of the nuclear component in the energy basket, etc.). This tactical coalition may not always appeal to the electors. The Hatoyama cabinet appears to give particular care to dosage between the different factions of the DPJ, a melting pot of former LDP members, union activists, socialists and newcomers, also forebodes internal struggles on several major issues, and in particular on foreign policy and security issues. As regards ladies, who were used as foils throughout the campaign, they are in fine little represented and only obtained the social affairs and justice portfolios.
Another threat of friction, the role played by Ichiro Ozawa, the strategist of the DPJ. This unpredictable character, destabilised at the beginning of the year by a politico-financial case, was forced into stepping aside in favour of Yukio Hatoyama, today Prime Minister. Appointed secretary-general of the DPJ and suppose to handle the party’s affairs, and not the country’s, M. Ozawa still keeps high power of influence in the Parliament, all the more so since younger MPs, selected by this mentor, owe him their election. Still the public mistrust this manipulator in the shadow whose objectives are not clearly stated. “The coming to power of the DPJ is but the first step of my great ambition”, he said a few days after victory, casting a cloud on his ultimate intentions.
As regards M. Hatoyama, he will have to answer to journalists in spite of his apprehensions and the thoughtfulness of his entourage. The influent media already raise eyebrows as to why top-rank civil servants, henceforth toeing the lines of the government and of its “national strategy office”, are forbidden to give press conferences on technical matters. “Information control has begun”, right-wing daily paper Sankei Shimbun wrote. Another powerful newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun, hastened to add: “this goes against the promise of transparency of the new government even if it is justified by its will to return power to elected political decision-makers, accountable to the people”. Still the electors, easily confused, may change their minds quickly. The victory of the DPJ is plebiscite by default, voicing strong discontent against the LDP system. It is in no way a full and complete adhesion to the programme stated.
Karyn Poupée
Author of “Les Japonais”, a historico-sociological essay, published in September 2008 by Tallandier (506 pages, 25 Euros). This book was awarded the Franco-Japanese Shibusawa-Claudel prize in 2009.
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30/12/14
